Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.05.2022 - USD/CHF: Features and...

30.05.2022 11:42 AM

USD/CHF: Features and Trading Tips

USD/CHF refers to pairs with a direct currency quote and indicates how many units of the Swiss national currency (franc) are contained in one US dollar. The base currency in the USD/CHF pair is the US dollar. This means that the commodity in the USD/CHF pair is the US dollar, and the franc is the second currency in the pair, which buys the base currency (US dollar).

At the moment, the USD/CHF pair is trading on the Forex market at a price close to 0.9560. This means that for one US dollar they give 0.9560 Swiss francs.

Features of trading the USD/CHF pair

Both the dollar and the franc are highly liquid currencies. This means that at almost any moment there will be both buyers and sellers for the dollar or franc. The USD/CHF pair is actively traded throughout the trading day. The highest peak of trading activity with the franc and the USD/CHF pair and the largest trading volumes occur during the European session (06:00 – 16:00 GMT).

The franc, along with the yen, gold and other precious metals, has the status of a safe-haven asset and is in active demand among investors during periods of economic or political instability in the world or in certain regions of the world. However, it is worth noting that in recent years, due to active intervention in the auctions of the Swiss central bank, the importance of the franc as a protective asset has, to some extent, decreased. Moreover, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) never notifies of the currency intervention, as a rule, with the sale of the franc, neither before nor after the intervention.

From March 2015 until the beginning of 2020 (that is, before the start of the coronavirus pandemic), there was a tendency for the USD/CHF pair to move in ranges with a balance zone approximately between the levels of 0.9300, 1.0300. The range dynamics of the USD/CHF pair was formed after a well-known event, when on Thursday, January 15, 2015, the SNB "untied" the franc rate from the euro. The result of a jump of more than 1500 points in pairs with the franc, including in the USD/CHF pair, was then the bankruptcy of a number of Forex brokers.

The USD/CHF pair has fairly even volatility throughout the trading day. The intraday volatility of the pair fluctuates in different periods of the year. On average, it is up to 100 points (in a 4-digit quote), but it can rise sharply during the publication of important macroeconomic indicators for the United States or Switzerland. The surge in trading volatility in the USD/CHF pair occurs during the publication of important macroeconomic indicators of the two countries and the decisions of the Federal Reserve or the Swiss National Bank regarding monetary policy in the United States or Switzerland.

Press conferences of the central banks of the USA and Switzerland and statements by key figures of the central banks of the two countries sometimes cause no less volatility in the USD/CHF pair. Decisions to tighten the monetary policy of central banks lead, as a rule, to an increase in the value of national currencies. This fully applies to the dollar and the franc. And vice versa.

If the Federal Reserve or the Swiss National Bank demonstrates a tendency to ease monetary policy, then the dollar or the franc, respectively, weaken in the foreign exchange market and in relation to each other. Almost traditionally, the SNB considers the franc to be overbought and relatively expensive, which, according to the SNB, hinders the growth of the Swiss economy and harms the country's exporters. This should also be taken into account when the franc is excessively strengthening, including in the USD/CHF pair.

Still, the franc has not completely lost the status of a safe-haven currency, and therefore it has a fairly strong direct correlation with the yen, gold, which have the status of safe-haven assets in financial markets. Until January 15, 2015, the USD/CHF pair had an almost mirror image inverse correlation with the EUR/USD pair. The strong inverse correlation of pairs has declined markedly, but is still significant, especially during periods when no significant Eurozone or Swiss macroeconomic data are released, and when there are no extraordinary events of an economic or political nature.

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