Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

Testing the 1.0322 price level earlier today coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a proper entry point for buying euros. This resulted in the pair rising to the target level of 1.0354, where selling on a rebound generated approximately 15 points of profit.

The U.S. Services PMI, anticipated to be at a relatively high level, could confirm steady demand for services, supporting optimism among investors and traders. If the figure surpasses expectations, it could strengthen confidence in economic stability, potentially sparking discussions about more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the U.S. composite PMI, projected to hover slightly above 50 points, will serve as a key indicator for assessing the broader economic state. Aligning with forecasts will likely reinforce the current trend. Furthermore, FOMC member Lisa D. Cook's speech could impact the market, especially if she comments on the Fed's future rate policy. A dovish tone regarding inflation and growth might bolster bullish sentiment, while hints of potential tightening could trigger a short-term correction.

For intraday strategies, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro at approximately 1.0432 (green line on the chart) targeting growth toward 1.0493. At 1.0493, I plan to exit the market and sell euros for a 30–35-point pullback. A continuation of the morning trend supports expectations of euro growth.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward movement.

Scenario #2: Buy the euro after two consecutive tests of the 1.0395 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential, potentially reversing the market upward. Growth toward 1.0432 and 1.0493 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0395 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0345, where I plan to exit the market and buy for a 20–25-point rebound. Pressure on the pair may resume following strong U.S. statistics.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: Sell the euro after two consecutive tests of the 1.0432 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will cap the pair's upward potential, likely reversing the market downward. A decline toward 1.0395 and 1.0345 is expected.

Chart Details:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set, or profits manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set, or profits manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones to guide entry decisions.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders on Forex:

• Exercise caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of critical fundamental reports to avoid abrupt price movements.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-loss orders may result in rapid loss of your deposit, especially if trading large volumes without money management.
• Successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.