Forex Analysis & Reviews: 21.09.2021 - Evergrande is new Lehman

21.09.2021 02:48 PM

Evergrande is new Lehman

Wall Street analysts believe in the Chinese Communist Party.

After a turbulent Monday, when risky assets around the world plummeted due to fears of a China Evergrande Group collapse, some of the world's largest banks and money managers assured investors that the Lehman case is unlikely to repeat (the mortgage lending bank that sparked the 2008 economic crisis).

Citigroup Inc., Fidelity International Ltd., and AllianceBernstein Holding LP reported that Evergrande may indeed default, but Chinese authorities would take measures to prevent this real estate giant's crisis from destabilizing the financial system and the economy.

China Evergrande Group fell further in the stock and credit markets on Tuesday, exacerbating fears of a further contagion after S&P Global Ratings said the developer was on the verge of default.

The developer's shares in Hong Kong fell as much as 7% before ending down only 0.4%, still settling near a 10-year low. Its 8.25% dollar bonds maturing in 2022 fell 0.3 cents to 24.9 cents, dropping about 75% since late May. The junk-rated company is the largest issuer of high-yield bonds in Asia.

"We believe Beijing would only be compelled to step in if there is a far-reaching contagion causing multiple major developers to fail and posing systemic risks to the economy," the S&P reported on Monday.

The problems could further undermine investor confidence in China's real estate sector and the lower-rated credit markets, a credit assessment expert said. The contagion continued the sell-off across the globe. On Tuesday, even high-quality dollar bonds fell in Asia, sending spreads to their worst two-day widening since April. Stocks also continued to fall. Some sectors of the market, including real estate stocks in Hong Kong, jumped after Monday's collapse.

Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yang told the staff that he firmly believes the company will soon emerge from its darkest moment, the Securities Times reported, citing a company letter. It said the developer will accelerate a full resumption of construction to ensure that the buildings are handed over. An Evergrande spokesman confirmed the authenticity of the letter.

Investors are weighing policy tightening in China, which hit the real estate sector last year with the "three red lines" to curb rising debt. Controversy over how much the government can help in volatile markets has spread several months after the case of China's biggest bad debt manager Huarong provoked a market rout.

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